CE's speech in Singapore yesterday - Update 1

From: CEO <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2009-12-07 11:48 GMT+08:00
Subject: Fw: CE's speech in Singapore yesterday - Update 1
To: annageor@hkbn.net

Dear George,

Thank you for your email of 1 December.

 Yours sincerely,
(Julia Hui)
 for Private Secretary to Chief Executive

----- Original Message -----

From:  George Luk

To:  Mr. Donald Tsang

Sent:  Tuesday, December 01, 2009 3:49 PM

Subject:  Fwd: CE's speech in Singapore yesterday - Update 1

Dear all,

Would like to add more info. to the reply from CEO.   Dr. Paul B. Farrel wrote in the Marketwatch.com ( subsidiary of W. S. Journal ) on the 17^tth this month :-

This is what he wrote :-

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-meltdown-is-coming-in-2012-2009-11-17?pagenumber=1

Since 2000, my columns have covered many warnings of major debt accumulation, market meltdowns, and the psychological failings of Wall Street's greedy, myopic brains. Last June we summarized 20  predictions  made between 2000 and 2007 warning of a subprime meltdown coming.

Oddly, no one seemed to be listening to all the warnings from leading minds like Buffett,  Grantham, Gross, Faber, Shilling, Roubini, Fed governors, and many more. Was that a repeat of 2000 with no one listening?

Suddenly it hit me: It's just the opposite: Everyone is listening and everybody knew a crash was coming -

- but we were in a trance, including Washington's bosses. Bernanke, Bush, Paulson, Greenspan all heardit. So did Wall Street, and Main Street.

Unfortunately America's collective brain was addicted to the adrenaline rush of gambling in a risky bull. The euphoria is intoxicating. We were caught up in a game of musical chairs, squeezing out every last dollar of return, blind to the catastrophe ahead until caught by surprise.

Unfortunately, Wall Street lacked a moral compass and stole trillions from American taxpayers. Today, the only lesson Wall Street has learned is "greed is good." Now the beginning of the end has become a moral tragedy that is setting the stage for an implosion of Wall Street, capitalism and our economy circa 2012.

Roubini also wrote in the New York Daily News.com’s opinion that :-

Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.

Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession……………..

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/11/15/2009-11-15_the_worst_is_yet_to_come_unemployed_americans_should_hunker_down_for_more_job_lo.html#ixzz0XfPOakOU

Best regards,

George Luk

From: CEO <ceo@ceo.gov.hk>
Date: 2009/11/18
Subject: Re: CE's speech in Singapore yesterday
To: George Luk

Dear Mr Luk,

Thank you for your email of 14 November to the Chief Executive, sharing with us your views.

Yours sincerely,

 (Julia Hui)
 for Private Secretary to Chief Executive

----- Original Message -----

From:  George Luk

To:  Mr. Donald Tsang

Cc: Mr. Zhang-yutai

Sent: Saturday, November 14, 2009 10:52 AM

Subject: RE : CE's speech in Singapore yesterday

Dear Mr. Tsang,

I fully agree with your view on the CARRY-TRADE of the USD. Ever since the QE (quantitative easing), the actual interest rate of the dollar is even below the yen.

While the U.S./European banks haven't good confidence in lending, the excess of funds in hand has roaming around the world to look for better yield.

In this way, most asset classes are highly inflated, particularly those Asia as economic growth in the region's considered much better than at home.

But this won't be sustainable as the no-employment recovery in those developed countries won't support consumer spending. This will in turn adversely affect Greater China's export. So we have to encourage domestic spending and growth from  Lightning-Speed develoment/investment of our infrastructure.

Regards,

George Luk